Financial Event: The Nonfarm Payrolls Report

The most important economic indicator for the US

The Non-Farm Payroll, or NFP in short, is a monthly report issued on the first Friday of every month by the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics.

When is the next NFP Report?

The next NFP Report is on the 3rd of July

Why is the NFP important

The NFP Report specifies which sector - excluding agricultural, governmental and private households- has added more employees in comparison to other sectors. It also includes additional information such as average hourly earnings and wage increases.

An increase in jobs may be taken as a sign of inflationary pressures, which may lead to an interest rate hike. On the opposite, a fall in numbers may indicate a declining economy, increasing the chances of a rate cut.

The NFP is a reliable indicator of how the U.S Labor market is fairing and has the power to impact the Dollar and the Stock Market. During the announcement, we are expecting high volatility across USD pairs.

What to watch out for

Below we present a list of what to bear in mind:

  • The percentage of the unemployment rate over the overall workforce - It can influence how the Federal Reserve assesses the US economy.
  • Which sectors show fluctuations in job demand and supply – Gives traders information on specific sectors of the economy which can help in planning better informed and more precise trades
  • The Average Hourly Earnings – If there is a decrease in this number but the number of jobs remains the same then it affects the economy the same way like when people have been subtracted from the workforce
  • Revisions to previous NFP releases – An important component that has the power to spark high and sudden volatility in market movement due to traders re-pricing their growth expectations based on these revisions.

A higher than expected reading should be seen as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be seen as negative/bearish for the USD.

WHAT IS A NONFARM PAYROLLS FORECAST?

A NonFarm Payrolls Forecast tries to predict the result of the NFP monthly report and the impact these results can have on the markets by using important economic indicators to understand the outlook like Unemployment Rate, Labor Force Participation Rate and Average Hourly Earnings.

The National Employment Report (ADP) estimates nonfarm employment based on surveying thousands of private businesses. The main difference between the ADP and NFP is the sample size and the methodology of study. ADP reports can show anticipations of NFP trends. NFP Outlooks using ADP are based on Jobs Report, historic data and other related indicators such as Initial and Continuing Jobless claims.

NFP Calendar

The data release is usually on the first Friday of every month at 13:30am CET

Release Date Actual Forecast Previous
June 05, 2020 (May) 2,509K -8,000K -20,500K
May 08, 2020 (Apr) -20,500K -21,853K -701K
Apr 03, 2020 (Mar) -701K -124K 273K
Mar 06, 2020 (Feb) 273K 175K 225K
Feb 07, 2020 (Jan) 225K 160K 145K
Jan 10, 2020 (Dec) 145K 164K 266K
Dec 06, 2019 (Nov)  266K 186K 128K
Nov 01, 2019 (Oct)  128K 89K 136K
Oct 04, 2019 (Sept)  136K 145K 130K
Sept 06, 2019 (Aug)  130K 160K 164K
August 02, 2019 (July) 164K 165K 224K
July 05, 2019 (Jun) 224K 160K 75K
June 07, 2019 (May) 75K 185K 263K
May 03, 2019 (April)  263K 185K 196K
Apr 05, 2019 (March)  196k 180k 20K
Mar 08, 2019 (Feb)  20k 185K 304K
Feb 01, 2019 (Jan)  304K 168K 312K
Jan 04, 2019 (Dec) 312k 177k 155K
Dec 07, 2018 (Nov) 155K 200K 250K
Nov 02, 2018 (Oct) 250K 191K 134K
Oct 05, 2018 (Sept) 134K 185K 201K
Sept 07, 2018 (Aug) 201K 191K 147K
Aug 03, 2018 (Jul) 157K 193K 248K
Jul 06, 2018 (Jun) 213K 200K 244K
Jun 01, 2018 (May) 223K 189K 159K
May 04, 2018 (Apr) 164K 189K 135K
Apr 06, 2018 (Mar) 103K 193K 326K
Mar 09, 2018 (Feb) 313K 200K 239K
Feb 02, 2018 (Jan) 200K 184K 160K
Jan 05, 2018 (Dec) 148K 190K 252K
Dec 08, 2017 (Nov) 228K 200K 244K
Nov 03, 2017 (Oct) 261K 310K 18K
Oct 06, 2017 (Sept) -33K 90K 169K